Putin & Narendra Modi Set for Talks During Politically Treacherous Times for Moscow & India

The last time the Russian President traveled to the South Asian nation four years ago, the international order looked entirely distinct. That short trip, limited by the pandemic, focused on discussions on economic and military ties between the two leaders.

Not long after, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine would turn the Russian leader into a global pariah, significantly restricting his overseas engagements.

Furthermore, that era preceded a significant shift in ties between Washington and Delhi, marked by contentious rhetoric and the introduction of substantial import duties.

"In this context, the significance of this diplomatic mission to engage with the Indian PM is profound, serving as a symbol of resilient relations and a rejection of outside coercion," analysts note.

A Critical Juncture for Both Nations

The summit occurs at a crucial time. The Kremlin leader comes following rejecting latest peace proposals for Ukraine, confident due to claimed gains by Russian forces.

"From Moscow's perspective, the primary importance of this visit is its very occurrence," stated a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It suggests a return to a form of normal international relations."

For India, the risks are particularly elevated. The country navigates a difficult geopolitical climate, characterized by a semi-isolationist United States, a diminished Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

This delicate balance was highlighted just before the visit, when European ambassadors released a public commentary criticizing Russia's commitment to peace. This elicited a sharp response from Indian officials, who called it an inappropriate diplomatic practice.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The historical partnership dates back to the Cold War era and is deeply entrenched, with Moscow long being Delhi's primary defense supplier. This alliance was largely tolerated by the West until a change in approach.

Over time, Western nations overlooked India's substantial purchases of cheap energy from Russia. However, recently failed peace efforts, accusations mounted, leading to economic penalties and a major chill in US-India ties.

"Consequently, India has returned to its traditional posture of maintaining multiple options," noted a foreign policy expert. "It signals to the US that it has other choices and is observing how the situation unfolds."

Beyond international politics, India's fundamental concern with Russia is its strategic location. "Beijing continues to be the primary security challenge to India, and historically, India has relied on Russia as a continental balancer against China," the analyst stated.

The strengthening Moscow-Beijing axis has caused concern in Delhi, prompting efforts to avoid an excessively close bond between its northern neighbor and its longtime partner.

This apprehension has also spurred India's drive to reduce its military imports, decreasing its dependence on Russian equipment from about 70% to under 40% in recent years.

"India will attempt to find a middle ground: purchase enough Russian arms to maintain the alliance, but not become overly reliant that a supply disruption would leave it vulnerable," the analyst concluded.

Energy and Economic Ties

Enhanced trade relations is likely to be a key agenda item. The Russian leader has recently emphasized plans to elevate cooperation with India to a "higher plane", defying Western sanctions.

The matter of crude oil imports is pivotal. Although the Indian government has vowed to keep buying Russian oil, new sanctions have slowed activity from the private sector. Simultaneously, India has agreed to increase imports of US energy.

A Kremlin spokesperson acknowledged "hurdles" in energy trade but said it would proceed uninterrupted. The official downplayed the impact of sanctions, stating they would cause only "minor" and "temporary" disruptions and that Russia possesses the "means" to circumvent them.

Diplomatic Constraints

When the two leaders sit down, the issue of Ukraine is likely to be mentioned mainly through India's standard call for a peaceful resolution.

"While the Indian leader has access to both sides, India lacks the necessary leverage to significantly influence the conflict," the analyst said. "Aside from urging negotiations, its ability to make a difference is constrained."

Ultimately, notwithstanding the visible friendship between the two leaders, the partnership is at its core one of "pure realpolitik," driven by cold calculation in a volatile world.